Different day - same story.  I continue to believe the trend trajectory of mortgage interest rates will be completely dependent on trading action in the stock markets for at least the next couple of days.  It will almost certainly be an event that provides the momentum necessary to push mortgage interest rates to lower levels -- rather than anything on the balance of this month's economic calendar.   

A little counter-trend rally is now underway for the DOW and the NASDAQ will likely begin to run out of upward momentum on Wednesday or Thursday. 

Here's where things get interesting. 

If the DOW and NASDAQ rally strong enough to close above their previous respective highs of 11154 and 2517 - the upward pressure on mortgage interest rates will intensify considerably.

On the other hand, if both indexes rally but fail to take out their previous highs before turning lower - it will be a very positive development for the prospects of steady to fractionally lower rates ahead.

It is a close call - and the jury will be out on this one potentially through the end of the week.  The easiest way to make money in this business is not to lose it to start with.  Be disciplined enough to wait for forthcoming price action to signal the mortgage market's directional intentions - and avoid the temptation to take pipeline risks while simultaneously attempting to hope and wish the mortgage market into moving in favor of lower rates and higher prices. ---     


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