MyVaRefinance
  • HOME
  • ADVANTAGES OF VA LOAN
  • VA STREAMLINE REFINANCE
  • GET A QUOTE
  • BLOG
  • TESTIMONIALS

va refinance news

12/3/2009

0 Comments

 
Following a stronger-than-expected weekly jobless claims number - mortgage investors were quick to push mortgage interest rates fractionally higher in the day's early going. 

According to the Labor Department, new applications for jobless benefits unexpectedly fell by 5,000 last week to the lowest level in more than 14 months.  While this jobless claims report falls outside of the survey period for tomorrow's 8:30 a.m. ET release of the far more important November nonfarm payroll figures -- some investors wasted no time placing their "bets" for a surprisingly mortgage market unfriendly employment story. 

I personally think these mortgage investors may have jumped the gun a bit.  Even though the first-time claims number was better than the majority of economist had anticipated - the number of people continuing to collect benefits after the initial week rose by 28,000.   Going one step further, with hiring so slow, the unemployed are exhausting their regular benefits (26 weeks in most states) and instead are claiming extended benefits or Emergency Unemployment Compensation.  Growing totals for these programs have more than offset the decline in the regular weekly jobless claims number.  For the week ending November 14th, the enrollment in the extended benefits programs offered by the government grew by 323,000.   From this perspective, the weekly jobless claims numbers are almost certainly glossing over the underlying anemic conditions in the labor market.

     The probabilities remain high that Friday's November nonfarm payroll will fall within shouting distance of the consensus estimate for a national job loss number of 130,000.  If so, the Labor Department's data will likely exert little, if any influence on the mortgage market.   On the other hand, if the headline number shows the economy lost 150,000 jobs or more and/or the national jobless rate exceeds 10.3% -- the odds are high that a large number of investors will be caught leaning the wrong way - resulting in higher prices and lower mortgage interest rates before the day is over.

0 Comments



Leave a Reply.

    Archives

    December 2013
    August 2013
    July 2013
    May 2013
    February 2013
    December 2012
    November 2012
    September 2012
    April 2012
    December 2011
    November 2011
    August 2011
    July 2011
    June 2011
    May 2011
    April 2011
    March 2011
    February 2011
    January 2011
    December 2010
    November 2010
    October 2010
    September 2010
    July 2010
    June 2010
    May 2010
    April 2010
    March 2010
    February 2010
    January 2010
    December 2009
    November 2009
    October 2009
    September 2009
    August 2009
    July 2009
    June 2009
    May 2009

    Categories

    All
    Home Loans
    Irrrl
    Mortgage Rate News
    Refinance
    Va Loan
    Va Loan Rates
    Va Loans
    Va Mortgage Loan
    Va Mortgage Rates
    Vamortgage Rates
    Va Refinance

    RSS Feed